2023 NBA Draft Lottery Explained: How Does the Lottery Work? Who has the best chance of landing Victor Wembanyama?

With the regular season ending this weekend and the playoffs just around the corner, that means we’re closer to the 2023 NBA Draft lottery as well. The time of year when all the teams that didn’t make the playoffs hope their spot in the next draft will help them do better next season.

This year’s highly anticipated draft centers on international prospect Victor Wembanyama, who has been touted as the most talented potential No. 1 pick since LeBron James. The 19-year-old, 7’2″ Frenchman plays for Metropolitans 92 in France’s top men’s professional league.

But before we get to the 2023 NBA Draft, which will take place on June 22 after the conclusion of the NBA Finals, let’s break down some key details about the lottery draft. If you haven’t been following how the NBA changed the draft lottery, or just forgot, here’s a little reminder before the lottery takes place on May 16.

When is the draw?

The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on Tuesday, May 16 before the scheduled start of the Conference Finals. It will air at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Which teams are participating in the draw?

The 14 teams that do not make the playoffs are eligible for the draw. The final entrant field and odds for each team will not be confirmed until the end of the regular season and Play-In tournament. However, at present these are nine of the 14 teams guaranteed to be in the draw:

How does the draw work?

Until four years ago, the team with the worst record automatically got first place in the upcoming draft. This would encourage teams that weren’t going anywhere fast to rack up as many losses as possible in hopes of securing that top spot on the draft board. Before the change, the team with the worst record had a 25% chance of landing the first pick, followed by a 19.9% ​​chance for the second-worst team and a 15.6% chance for the third-worst team. However, in 2019 the league decided to flatten the odds in hopes of discouraging tanking and creating a bit more excitement around the draw.

Now, instead of one team rising to the top of the lottery, the three teams with the worst records all have a 14% chance of getting the top pick. The team with the worst record is also guaranteed to be in the top five. But just because these three teams have the inside track to land the top pick doesn’t mean they’ll get it. Five teams with the worst records all have at least a 10% chance of landing the first overall pick. Nine of the 14 lottery teams will also have at least a 20% chance of landing in the Top 4 in the lottery, which can create chaos.

In the first year of the league’s new lottery system, the New Orleans Pelicans, who entered the night with the seventh-best odds to secure the top pick, climbed to first place. They topped the three teams that had a 14% chance of getting it, a shocking development that led to New Orleans signing heralded prospect, and now two-time All-Star, Zion Williamson. That year’s draft lottery was proof that anything really can happen, regardless of the odds.

What is the selection process for the lottery?

This is where things get a little more technical. Ping-pong balls numbered from 1 to 14 are placed inside a machine, symbolizing the 14 lottery teams. In these 14 balls, there is a possibility of 1,001 four-digit combinations. These combinations are then distributed among the 14 lottery teams. To determine pick #1, individual ping pong balls are selected to create a four-digit combination. The team that matches the chosen combination is then assigned the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. This same process is then repeated to determine the second through fourth picks.

Once that process is complete to determine the top four draft picks, the remaining order (places 5-14) is set in reverse order of their 2022-23 regular season record. In other words, teams with the worst remaining records pick higher than those who finished with better records.

What are the odds of the draw?

Odds will not be confirmed until the regular season and qualifying round are over. However, the Pistons are guaranteed to finish with the No. 1 spot, giving them a 14% chance of being the No. 1 pick overall. The rest of the draft lottery odds are as follows: