Pick 2023 NFL win totals, best bets for AFC South: Texans look like sleepers, Jaguars Over/Under too high

NFL season win totals are some of the most fun stocks to bet on – it’s a season-long bet with week-to-week intensity due to the importance of each game. for the final season record. I’ve been writing win totals for CBS for years, so it’s crazy to me that we’re getting them now from mid-March to the end; we still had to fight our way through May to get them released.

Caesars Sportsbook dropped win totals for every NFL team recently, so let’s break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here:

AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Before diving into AFC South, a few quick notes. First, we select each team but do not bet on each team. Two, all best bets will be shown in bold, etc. Third, if you like an Over that’s reasonably high, don’t bet now, as damage is random. Four, I’m picking them from March 30, so I’ll lean more Unders based on injuries.

Let’s go.

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

Over 9.5 (-140) / Under 9.5 (+120)

Look, no one promoted the Jaguars more last year than I did. I picked them — not bet, I picked them — to win the division preseason. My family is from DUVAL. Huge fan of Doug P and hit the drum “anyone who thinks Trevor Lawrence is the QB Urban Meyer drafted is an idiot” as hard as they come. That said…a super juicy 10-win season for Jacksonville is outrageous. AFC South is drawing AFC North and NFC South this year, so the numbers can be bumped up a bit. But the Jags have won more than nine games once in the last 15 years (2017 obviously). It’s a HUGE prize even if you believe it (and I do!). A first-place schedule is still on the schedule, which means Chiefs, Bills, Niners outside of crossovers and divisional games. Ten wins is tough in the NFL. I will take the Under at this point in the proceedings.

Choose: Jaguars UNDER 9.5 (+120)

Tennessee Titans

Over 7.5 (+115) / Under 7.5 (-135)

In the offseason, I love to scrutinize the depth charts and imagine the possibilities – what’s the best scenario for an attack or a defense. Attack on Titan is hard to see, even with 20/20 vision. Maybe that will change if they get a WR early; They are said to be in the QB market as well, via a trade from 11th, which wouldn’t help in 2023. Honestly, the only problem here is Mike Vrabel. He is only an elite coach (41 wins in his first four seasons, to say the least), but it is fair to ask how the situation of the power structure in the Tennessee will run. The offensive line is a work in progress right now – if Vrabel gets the hang of it and adds another weapon, this offense can be a problem. In another division, this number would not be so high. I don’t think AFC South will change materially over the next few months, so I’m probably leaning into more money, but I wouldn’t bet.

Choose: Titans OVER 7.5 (+115)

Indianapolis Colts

Over 6.5 (-150) / Under 6.5 (+125)

The prevailing logic says the Colts will take a quarterback at No. 4 (or trade up to No. 3 and get one). I’d love to object to that, but Jim Irsay isn’t a rational actor – I’ve already acted like a fool assuming the Panthers and David Tepper would make sense, I don’t need to look stupid to assume rationality a second time. I think there’s a fair chance the Colts could completely tank this season. Irsay has already done that with the Peyton Manning/Andrew Luck transition, and this roster, with a new coach and no QB options, would be ripe for a Caleb Williams or Drake Maye next year. Even fourth overall is Anthony Richardson or Will Levis, both of whom have huge upsides but minimal potential bottom in their first season. That extra money looks pretty cool right now.

Pick: Colts UNDER 6.5 (+125)

Houston Texans

Over 5.5 (-110) / Under 5.5 (-110)

I’ll take “the trains I can’t regret being in November for $2000, Alex”,., “who are the Texans!” I actually don’t mind being ahead here with the possibility of a young QB positioning himself behind a strong offensive line, with a good running game behind him and a massive upgrade with the coaching staff. . DeMeco Ryans could be a stud and brought some quality helpers with him (Bobby Slowik is the newest member of ShanaClan Tree). The Texans quickly signed a veteran group on defense. Despite the Brandin Cooks trade (you left your free sub/NFL punch card in the lobby, Mr. Cooks, just FYI), Houston did a good job improving the overall quality of the pass-catching corps. I actually think they could crawl for that division title in 2023 if all goes well…

Pick: BEST BET: Texans OVER 5.5 (-110)

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